This time, I'd like to share my personal opinion on investment strategies for Philippine stocks in 2025.
My Personal Investment Strategy for 2025
So far, I have introduced market forecasts and potential risks for Philippine stocks in 2025.
Finally, I would like to share my personal strategy for investing in the current Philippine stock market.
The Philippine stock price index (PSE index) was 5862.59 at the end of January 2025, down more than 20% from its highest in October last year, entering a bearish market. After a brief rebound in February, it remained flat.
Since March, the US 10-year bond and US dollar index have fallen due to concerns about the trade war and the US economic recession, so Philippine stocks are currently rising in the short term.
Currently, the PSE Index stock price is fluctuating between 6200 and 6300, but the P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio), which indicates the fair price of the stock, is 9.77 as of March 21, 2025. This is considered undervalued compared to the average P/E ratio over the past five years.
The key is whether it can break 6300, which is a psychological resistance level, and then break the next level at 6500. If it cannot break out of these two levels, it is possible that it will fall to 5800.
Considering the seasonal trend, May tends to see short-term rises throughout the year, while August is known as a "Ghost month" with poor performance. Generally, the market rises towards the New Year holidays, but in 2024 it recorded its highest price in October and then fell until January of the following year.
Based on this, my target is to enter after confirming that the PSEi is in an upward trend when it successfully breaks through the resistance levels of 6300 and 6500 from March to August, and then hold until the price reaches a level where I can enjoy a return of about 10%, around 7000 to 7200.
Of course, as most Philippine brokers are optimistic, there may be further increases towards the end of the year. However, a decision on whether to hold or sell will need to be made after carefully analyzing domestic Philippine inflation, economic development, corporate financial reports, US economic trends, exchange rates, etc.
In stock trading, what I prioritize most is not how much profit can be made, but managing risks and minimizing losses while growing assets. I believe that 2025 will still be an unstable and highly uncertain market. Therefore, it is advisable to enter the market only when there is a clear confirmation that it has entered an upward trend.
Unlike the market forecast for 2025 by many security brokers, I am quite cautious. Honestly, in my personal opinion, I am skeptical that the market will see as much of an increase this year as they claim.
The reason is that I am concerned that US bonds and the US dollar will remain bullish during the Trump administration. I do not think that the US dollar will continue to fall until the end of the year, so this year we need to trade while paying attention to the movements and trends of US long-term bonds and the dollar.
How to Invest in the Philippine Composite Index (PSE Index)
So now, you may want to know how to invest in the Philippine Composite Index (PSEi).
In addition to investing in the PSEi through mutual funds offered by several banks and insurance companies in the Philippines, you can also consider CFDs (contracts for difference) and ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
We will not discuss CFDs here, but ETFs are investment funds listed on the stock exchange and can be traded like stocks.
There is the FMETF by First Metro, which is the only ETF listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange, and the iShares MSCI Philippines ETF by the world-famous US-based asset management company BlackRock Group.
Summary
Regarding the Philippine stock index PSE Index in 2025, securities companies are optimistic that it will rise to 7200-8800. The reasons for this include a reduction in stock transaction taxes, lower interest rates, midterm elections, and increased foreign direct investment (FDI).
However, it is necessary to consider the risks of trade wars, inflation that may cause a slowdown in the Philippine economy, and geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuations.
The above predictions are merely those of individual investor bloggers, so please make any investments at your own risk after understanding the risks.
Good luck!
《BACK NUMBER》
2025 Philippine Stock Market Guide for New Investors part 1
https://www.expats-life.com/2025/03/2025-philippine-stock-market-guide-for.html
2025 Philippine Stock Market Guide for New Investors part 2
https://www.expats-life.com/2025/03/2025-philippine-stock-market-guide-for_24.html
2025 Philippine Stock Market Guide for New Investors part 3
https://www.expats-life.com/2025/03/2025-philippine-stock-market-guide-for_68.html
2025 Philippine Stock Market Guide for New Investors part 4
https://www.expats-life.com/2025/03/2025-philippine-stock-market-guide-for_56.html
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