I explained the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) and the market conditions up to March 2025.
This time, I'll dive into the 2025 market forecast for Philippine stocks and the factors driving stock price increases.
After reviewing online news reports, I was surprised to see an optimistic outlook for 2025.
Securities companies in the Philippines are predicting a bullish market for 2025.
*In stock investing, the terms 'bull market' and 'bear market' are used to describe market trends. A bull market, named after the aggressive style of a bull, refers to a period when prices are continuously rising. Conversely, a bear market, named after the defensive style of a bear, refers to a period when prices are continuously falling.
BDO Capital and Investment Corporation 7,000～7,500
China Bank Capital 7,600
Luna Securities, Inc. 7,030〜8,080
https://www.bworldonline.com/stock-market/2025/01/01/644208/trump-2-0-monetary-policy-to-drive-phl-stocks/
First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp 7,600
https://www.bworldonline.com/corporate/2025/02/12/652681/psei-seen-reaching-7600-level-this-year/
Unicapital Securities, Incorporated (USI) 7,800
https://www.wazzup.ph/unicapitals-2025-economic-outlook-inflation-down-growth-up/#google_vignette
In 2025, Philippine securities brokers predict that the PSE index will rise to the 7200-8800 level.
This time, I'll dive into the 2025 market forecast for Philippine stocks and the factors driving stock price increases.
Philippine Stock Market Forecast for 2025
After reviewing online news reports, I was surprised to see an optimistic outlook for 2025.
Securities companies in the Philippines are predicting a bullish market for 2025.
*In stock investing, the terms 'bull market' and 'bear market' are used to describe market trends. A bull market, named after the aggressive style of a bull, refers to a period when prices are continuously rising. Conversely, a bear market, named after the defensive style of a bear, refers to a period when prices are continuously falling.
BDO Capital and Investment Corporation 7,000～7,500
BDO Capital & Investment Corp. President Eduardo V. Francisco said in an interview that the market could trade between 7,000 to 7,500 this year.
China Bank Capital 7,600
The local stock barometer could peak at just 7,600 this year amid market caution as Mr. Trump begins his second term as US President, China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message.
Luna Securities, Inc. 7,030〜8,080
Research Officer and Market Strategist Annika Gabrielle S. Angeles said in a market report. Ms. Angeles said under their baseline scenario, the PSEi could trade between 7,030 and 8,080 this year.
https://www.bworldonline.com/
First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp 7,600
The brokerage’s broader target range for the PSEi this year is 6,600 to 8,600, First Metro Securities said in an e-mail statement on Tuesday.
https://www.bworldonline.com/
Unicapital Securities, Incorporated (USI) 7,800
Unicapital forecasts a PSEi target of 7,800, driven by an anticipated 10% earnings growth rate in the stock market.
https://www.wazzup.ph/
In 2025, Philippine securities brokers predict that the PSE index will rise to the 7200-8800 level.
Considering that the PSEi is currently at 5800-6300 as of the end of March 2025, experts predict a 20-30% increase in 2025.
But what is the reason for this?
But what is the reason for this?
Lets check them out.
Next, we will introduce the reasons why Philippine stocks are expected to rise significantly.
In January 2025, a bill was passed to reduce the tax on stock transactions from 0.6% to 0.1%. As a result, stock transactions are expected to increase to 4.9 trillion pesos by 2029.
In 2024, the BSP reduced the base interest rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps). If inflation remains low, BSP Governor and Monetary Policy Committee Chairman Eli Remolona Jr. said there will be a gradual cut of 25 bps in the remaining monetary policy meetings this year.
This year's midterm elections are likely to boost domestic consumption. Since the 1990s, the median GDP growth rate in election years has been 6.1%, much higher than the median of 5.1% in non-election years.
Furthermore, since 2000, performance in election years has been 4.68% in 2019, 1.33% in 2013, 21.43% in 2007, and -21.84% in 2001, with positive growth possible in 2025 as well.
These are the reasons why Philippine stocks are expected to rise significantly in 2025.
Will it really work out that well? Aren't brokers just saying all the good stuff to attract more customers?
So, I looked into why they are optimistic about the market, and it seems that there are certainly positive events this year. But there must be some potential risks that brokers aren't talking about.
That is our next topic.
Reasons Why Philippine Stocks Are Expected to Rise in 2025
Next, we will introduce the reasons why Philippine stocks are expected to rise significantly.
1. Reduction in Stock Transaction Tax
In January 2025, a bill was passed to reduce the tax on stock transactions from 0.6% to 0.1%. As a result, stock transactions are expected to increase to 4.9 trillion pesos by 2029.
2. Reduction in Interest Rates
In 2024, the BSP reduced the base interest rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps). If inflation remains low, BSP Governor and Monetary Policy Committee Chairman Eli Remolona Jr. said there will be a gradual cut of 25 bps in the remaining monetary policy meetings this year.
3. Midterm Elections
This year's midterm elections are likely to boost domestic consumption. Since the 1990s, the median GDP growth rate in election years has been 6.1%, much higher than the median of 5.1% in non-election years.
Furthermore, since 2000, performance in election years has been 4.68% in 2019, 1.33% in 2013, 21.43% in 2007, and -21.84% in 2001, with positive growth possible in 2025 as well.
4. Increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
The passage of the Enterprise Tax Incentives for Recovery and Economic Revitalization (CREATE) Act in November is expected to attract more than 4 trillion pesos ($68 billion) in FDI, which will ultimately lead to foreign funds returning to the Philippines.These are the reasons why Philippine stocks are expected to rise significantly in 2025.
Will it really work out that well? Aren't brokers just saying all the good stuff to attract more customers?
So, I looked into why they are optimistic about the market, and it seems that there are certainly positive events this year. But there must be some potential risks that brokers aren't talking about.
That is our next topic.
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MONEY